References

Books, Papers, and Articles

Appleget, J., Burks, R., Cameron, F. (2020). The Craft of Wargaming: A Detailed Planning Guide for Defense Planners and Analysts

This guide provides comprehensive advice on organizing and conducting all aspects of war games, with a particular focus on those for analytical or educational purposes. This includes advice on the development and use of scenarios, but details are left to the reader. 

Bowden, F., Pincombe, B., Williams, P. (2015) “Feasible Scenario Spaces: a new way of measuring capability impact” in Proceedings of 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. 

 

This paper provides an illustration of the value of exploring break points. A break point is, for example, a zone of scenario intensity where, as the intensity changes, the outcome of using a designed force changes from success to failure. This is a type of analysis for which wargaming is particularly suited and for which scenario design is critical.

Caffrey, M. (2019) “On Wargaming: How Wargames Have Shaped History and How They May Shape the Future“. The Newport Papers 43, Naval War College

 This publication, freely downloadable thanks to the U.S. Naval War College, provides an extensive history of many aspects of the development of war gaming techniques over nearly two centuries. The chapter on taxonomy should be valuable to newcomers (and to many experienced wargamers). Be aware that there is not universal agreement on many of these terms. 

deLeon, P. (June 1973). Scenario Designs: An Overview. RAND

This report is focused on the designing of scenarios for the political/military seminar-type games, but many of the proposed approaches are easily adapted to other types of wargaming. Although dated, this report provides useful background for the scenario builder. 

Heuer, R.J. and Pherson, R. (2020). Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. 3ed. Sage

This book is intended for intelligence analysts. However the contents are applicable to a much wider community. In the second edition, Chapter 6 was devoted to “Scenarios and Indicators”. In this edition, scenarios and how they are built is covered in Chapter 9 “Foresight Techniques”. The methods are closer to the use of scenario-based planning in the corporate world. 

The purpose of this book is to introduce the reader to a wide diversity of techniques, but usually without the details needed to apply any of them. In a sense, the book is a catalogue of methods, not a handbook. For those who may want to employ any specific technique, including the use of scenarios, there are references that readers can use to delve into more detail. Readers seeking a handbook specifically on developing scenarios should look elsewhere. However many of the techniques are related to brainstorming and critical thinking and some awareness of these may be helpful during the process of building scenarios. The closest technique in this book to war gaming is called “role playing” by the authors; the authors use this label “to distinguish it from the more complex forms of military gaming”. 

Larson, E. (2019). Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning. RAND 

This book covers the use of scenarios in defence planning for 11 administrations, from Truman to Obama. While it does not cover scenario construction at the level of detail needed for wargaming, it illustrates how the employment of scenarios transforms as defence priorities and policies of a sponsor change. 

Longley-Brown, G. (2019). Successful Professional Wargames: A Practitioner’s Handbook. lulu.com

This handbook covers all aspects of modern wargaming. Chapters 19, 20 and 21 are devoted in sequence to “Scenario Writing”, “Scenario Development” and “Scenario Execution”. Chapters 19 and 20 provide guidance on building scenarios and Chapter 21 covers techniques that can be used during the play of a war game to ensure that material in the scenario is handled appropriately.

McHugh, F. (2013) U.S. Navy Fundamentals of War Gaming. Seahorse Publishing (and other publishers)

Francis McHugh wrote the first edition of Fundamentals of War Gaming in 1960. The third edition, first available in 1966, has been published in the 21st century by several publishers. This reference is an excellent presentation of wargaming as practiced within the U.S. military services as of the middle of the 20th century. It touches upon the introduction of computers into wargaming procedures. 

Ralston, B. and Wilson, I. (2006). The Scenario-Planning Handbook: A Practitioner’s Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today’s Uncertain Times. Thomson

This handbook (like the book by van der Heijden) is intended for those who will be developing scenarios for senior business leaders to use in strategic planning. Much of the guidance is about how to develop and use scenarios in a corporate setting. Although not intended for war-game development, this handbook provides valuable lessons that can be applied to wargaming.   

Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. 2ed. Wiley

The author was heavily engaged at Royal Dutch Shell (a.k.a. Shell Oil) in incorporating scenarios of potential future situations into corporate planning. The book is a guide to those who may want to use scenarios for strategic planning (like the book by Ralston and Wilson). The author acknowledges “[Scenario-based planning’s] emergence in the organizational world is preceded by its use by the military in war games.”” Many aspects of scenario-based planning in the corporate realm have gone beyond wargaming applications, but there are still many lessons from that field that can be used effectively in the building of scenarios for war games.